Morning in American Industry

Not to get political, but the opinion of this company is it really was a do-or-die election in November 2024.

America looked like it was trending toward Banana Republic status.

Recipe:

Bon appétit.

The dish made it to the collective American table, hot as Scarlett, aided by garcon Elon Musk: the opportunity to merely raise the idea of asking the question about opening the door for asking the question of the integrity of our elections.

Brandon’s clear mental decline was known even before the Trump presidency, with Joe as a gaffe-machine under Obama. This is not to mention his sponsorship of the 1994 crime bill, which has nearly doubled the number of incarcerated Americans in the past 30-odd years (US population has grown steadily, meanwhile).

A casual observer could tell from the first debate in September 2020 that Biden was not as sharp as Trump. How he got the nomination has been rumored to be due to corruption within the Democratic party, not to mention the soft coup of Kamala Harris in mid-2024 to push Biden out of the nomination. The Democrat party is a shambles, and on its way out the door is showing itself to be a corrupt organization throughout, not to mention inefficient.

So who has really been running the country, beside the DEI and HR departments? And were we Americans really so stupid as to fall for such a ruse and do nothing? Who can say? Time will tell.

And rounding out the commentary, the issue everyone really understands: the Runaway inflation.

Inverness’s take: the first trillion-dollar spending package I can recall in my lifetime occurred in one fell swoop in mid-2020 to combat COVID. Biden doubled down on this with another trillion or so (give or take) and so we spent two trillion on special purposes in less than a calendar year. And what have we got to show for it? Gas prices increased over 50% from Trump’s $1.97 to a normalized $3-and-change under Biden; grocery stores, insurance, and rent are ridiculous; and Americans are taxed beyond reckoning, with nothing to show for it.

Less than nothing.

A peek at the US government financial statements shows America’s balance sheet is upside down to the tune of $1 in assets for every $7 in debt, a la $5 Trillion in Federal Assets compared to $35 trillion in Federal Liabilities. It doesn’t matter who spent the money at this point: it needs to be righted. Our bloat, with over 5.5 million active and annuitant employees, not to mention the Department of Defense’s 2.1 million, is unacceptable. And we’ve managed to allow a budget deficit of roughly $1.5 trillion annually over the past two years. Elon Musk is carrying out this cleanup (on X.com, Vivek Ramaswamy has gone oddly quiet since the H1B discussion), among his other projects.

So what do? How have the markets performed since the election? What can we glean about where American Industry is headed?

America has an energized Trump and Elon hellbent on freeing up American industry. Alongside Elon’s ramping up SpaceX and Starlink, Tesla FSD, and x.com, a few trailing industries come to mind on which we can capitalize. First, steel. Stainless steel may be cheap, but it is cheap and strong, which is why Elon loves it. His sudden demand for hundreds of thousands of square feet of stainless for heat shields and rocket structure will necessitate America’s Gary plants to come back online in a hurry.

Second, Nuclear Power, but power in general. With the power demand from AI, major tech companies are dipping the toe back into nuclear energy, and in a big way. The current fleet is about 94 reactors across 54 sites and producing about 20% of the power consumed in the US, with the Department of Energy projecting a tripling of electrical capacity required by 2050, according to InsiderMonkey. Microsoft and Bill Gates have made $500mm and $1b investments in nuclear energy production, and with the democratization of AI software, that power requirement will become ever more constant. Now how to store it… Elon?

Finally, banks. Banks’ regulatory requirements are going to shrink significantly, as the incoming administration will put its DOGE partnership into effect. Not to mention the burgeoning space industry and the ancillary industries needing financing to support that. And the bulge bracket banks have been financing Elon’s endeavors since at least 2014, so they will have another inside track there.

America is going to knock the cover off the ball these next four years. Hold on tight.